Maldives Parliamentary Elections: Pro-China party's win raises concerns for India

The People's National Congress (PNC), led by Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu, has emerged victorious in the recent parliamentary elections, securing a substantial majority in the country's legislative body, the Majlis. This outcome has the potential to solidify Muizzu's pro-China stance and raises concerns about the future of Maldives-India relations.

With 66 wins out of the 86 declared seats, the PNC now holds a two-thirds majority in the Majlis. This victory grants President Muizzu the legislative muscle to push through his policies without significant opposition. The previous composition of the Majlis was dominated by the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), under the leadership of pro-India former president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, which created obstacles for Muizzu's policies.

Should India worry?
Muizzu's tenure has been marked by a distinct tilt towards Beijing. Since his election last year, he has awarded key infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned companies and has fostered closer ties with Chinese officials, including a visit to Beijing and a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. These moves have been observed with concern in New Delhi, given India's long-standing strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region.

Before the recent parliamentary elections, the MDP-controlled Majlis hindered Muizzu's plans, publicly criticizing his anti-India position. Following his party's resounding victory in the elections, Muizzu's power to steer the nation's policies towards China seems significantly strengthened. This raises concerns for India, given the geopolitical importance of the Maldives and the Indian Ocean region.

In the wake of Muizzu's win in the presidential election, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar adopted a restrained approach, emphasizing the enduring significance of history and geography in maintaining relations between neighboring countries. However, with the PNC's parliamentary majority, India's relationship with the Maldives could face greater challenges, particularly if Muizzu continues to pursue pro-China policies and reduces cooperation with India.

"History and geography are very powerful forces; there is no escape from that," Jaishankar had said in January on 'India Out' campaign in Maldives.

Despite recent diplomatic overtures from Muizzu, such as acknowledging India's financial support to the Maldives, the strengthening of China's influence in the region is apparent. The Maldives owes India approximately $400.9 million, and maintaining a balanced relationship will be crucial for India's strategic interests.

As Muizzu's party consolidates its power in the Majlis, the political dynamics in the Maldives could shift further towards Beijing, potentially impacting the strategic landscape of the Indian Ocean. India's approach in response to this evolving scenario will be closely watched as both countries navigate the new geopolitical reality.