Post-LiAngelo Ball Drama, UCLA Faces Early Now-or-Never Moment for Tourney Hopes

For the first few weeks of the 2017-18 men's college basketball season, it was impossible to miss the media storm surrounding UCLA. But now that the Bruins are free from the ever-present distraction of LaVar and LiAngelo Ball, can they turn things around in time to reach the 2018 NCAA tournament?

In case you somehow managed to tune it out or just enjoy reliving the past, here's a recap of what transpired.

• While in China for a season-opening game against Georgia Tech, freshmen LiAngelo Ball, Cody Riley and Jalen Hill were arrested on charges of shoplifting from a Louis Vuitton store next to the hotel where the Bruins were staying.
• ESPN color commentator Bill Walton apologized "on behalf of the human race for this travesty" before UCLA's three-point win over the Yellow Jackets.
• The team flew back home without the three players, who were reportedly facing up to 10 years in prison if convicted.
• As it so happens, President Donald Trump was also in China at the time, and he spoke with China's President Xi Jinping about expediting the process and letting the kids go home.
• Shortly after arriving back in the United States—one week after the initial arrests—the three players were suspended indefinitely. (They have not been reinstated.)
• Four days later, President Trump tweeted that he "should have left them in jail," because LaVar Ball was "unaccepting" of what he did for his son. (If that didn't break the internet, nothing will.)
• LaVar Ball then went on CNN for an interview with Chris Cuomo that can only be described as 22 minutes of chaos, questionable circular reasoning and self-promotion.
• Two weeks later, LaVar pulled LiAngelo out of UCLA to prepare for the NBA draft, ending his collegiate career before it ever began.

While that whole circus was going on, the Bruins struggled on the court.

They gave up 100 points in a loss to Creighton. They needed overtime to survive at home against Central Arkansas. They barely won a neutral-court game against a Wisconsin team that is currently 5-7. And things haven't gotten any better with the Ball family out of the picture. In its three games since the Balls left, UCLA lost to Michigan and Cincinnati and darn near lost a home game to South Dakota this past Tuesday.

Now, the Bruins have a do-or-die game against Kentucky (in New Orleans).

From a bird's-eye view, it might seem absurd to talk about UCLA as a team rapidly cementing its spot on the wrong side of the bubble. The Bruins were a preseason AP Top 25 team (No. 21), they are 8-3, they play in a major conference and—despite the close calls—they have yet to suffer a bad loss. In that regard, they are no different than, say, Butler, Texas or Alabama.

The problem is those teams play in conferences in which they will have ample opportunity to prove themselves with quality wins. Texas or Alabama could go 9-9 in league play and end up with something like two RPI top-25 wins, six RPI top-50 wins and no bad losses. Coupled with a "no marquee wins, no terrible losses" nonconference resume, that should be plenty for those teams to dance.

Meanwhile, the state of affairs in the Pac-12 is so bad that UCLA could go 14-4 in conference play and acquire at least one bad loss and nary an RPI top-50 win.

Per WarrenNolan.com, UCLA entered play Wednesday ranked 90th in RPI. The Bruins are 0-3 against the RPI Top 70, and five of their eight wins have come against teams outside the Top 200, which is not a flattering combination. As far as chances to make a statement in league play are concerned, 75 percent of the Pac-12 is ranked 80th or worse in RPI. Worse yet, UCLA's only opportunities against the top two teams in this conference (Arizona and Arizona State) are back-to-back road games in early February.

If seeing repeated use of "RPI" in December induces nausea and/or rage, just know that things aren't much better on KenPom.com. UCLA is 55th overall without a top-60 win, and 50 percent of the Pac-12 is ranked outside the top 100. The supposed third-best team in the league (USC) just lost a home game to Princeton on Tuesday night. The conference's overall KenPom rating (8.85) is only slightly better than its mark in 2011-12 (8.14), when it sent just two teams to the NCAA tournament, neither one as a single-digit seed.

So, yeah, UCLA better beat Kentucky on Saturday, or else it can start preparing for the NIT.

What makes all this hard to believe is the Bruins clearly have the talent to be a second-weekend team in the NCAA tournament—even with top-100 recruits Riley and Hill out indefinitely.

Thomas Welsh has expanded his game to the perimeter and is averaging a double-double (13.2 PPG, 10.6 RPG). Aaron Holiday isn't shooting from deep as well as he did in his first two seasons, but he has emerged as the go-to guy as a junior, leading the team in points, assists and steals. In all, five Bruins are averaging at least 10 points per game, and Gyorgy "G.G." Goloman (7.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG) is one heck of a sixth guy on that scoring list.

It certainly isn't the Lonzo Ball-led offense from last season, but UCLA has the necessary pieces to win a lot of games as one of the best teams in a major conference.

But what's it going to take for the Bruins to defeat the Wildcats for the second consecutive December?

First, UCLA needs to own the defensive glass. In last year's tilt, Kentucky grabbed 19 offensive rebounds, which turned into 16 second-chance points. UCLA's offense isn't potent enough to recover from that type of performance this time around. However, the Bruins are much better on the glass this year, ranking 25th nationally in defensive rebound percentage, per KenPom. It's going to be a tough battle with a Kentucky team that ranks 12th in offensive rebounding.

The second key to success is to stop committing so many turnovers. In the two-point win over Wisconsin and the losses to Michigan and Cincinnati, UCLA committed a combined 57 turnovers on 218 possessions. That's an offensive turnover rate of 26.1 percent, which would rank 349th nationally if the Bruins were doing that every night. And live-ball turnovers are the best way to get yourself destroyed by John Calipari's teams, as Kentucky's biggest runs always seem to start with fast-break dunks.

Most important of all, though, the Bruins need to hit a bunch of triples. Kentucky has ceded at least 10 three-pointers in four of its past five games and has had trouble keeping opponents from getting good looks on the perimeter. Meanwhile, everyone who steps on the floor for the Bruins is a threat to shoot it. Each of the eight leaders in minutes played has attempted more than one three-pointer per game.

But will they hit 53 percent like they did against Wisconsin or 22 percent like the game against Michigan?

If it's the latter in a loss, UCLA's only hope for the Big Dance might be to steal an automatic bid in the Pac-12 tournament.

At least there wouldn't be any jail time for that bit of pilfering.

Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom and Sports Reference. RPI data courtesy of WarrenNolan.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.