Now in its eighth month, the war in Ukraine drags on with no end in sight. Not only were Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitious plans for a victory lap after a speedy takeover of Ukraine dashed, but he also faces stunning setbacks on the battlefield, dissent at home, and broad international criticism for egregiously violating international law and U.N. Charter principles as a permanent member of the Security Council.
The latest condemnation came from presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron at the current session of the U.N. General Assembly. And now, China and India, two countries that had stayed neutral on the war until mid-September, are voicing concerns.
Although Putin puts on a brave face and continues to assert that his plans are on track, he is stuck with no good options and heavy odds. We need not speculate about his next moves: Russian-occupied regions of eastern and southern Ukraine – Luhansk and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk – are voting this week on their annexation by Russia. Western leaders are calling the referendum a sham, and the U.S. has said it will not recognize the annexation. Putin also issued a veiled threat to use nuclear weapons and said he was not bluffing.
And on Tuesday, the Kremlin called up 300,000 reserve troops for the first time since World War II. The move created further tension at home – most Russians are indifferent about the war, and there is no appetite to fight in Ukraine. After this announcement, all flights leaving Russia were totally booked in an apparent scramble to flee. and Putin called for flights not to be sold to men who were fighting age.
The pressure abroad increased with China’s President Xi Jinping and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi questioning the war. From September 14 to 16, Putin, Xi, and Modi attended the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.
As Putin met Xi, he acknowledged China’s concerns and questions about the war. Despite having earlier announced that there were “no limits” to their bilateral relations, China has followed the so-called “balanced approach” by not criticizing Russia in public but not supporting it, either.
And as Modi met Putin one-on-one, his opening comment was that “I know that today’s era is not of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.” Putin replied that he understood Modi’s concerns about the war: “I know about your position on the conflict in Ukraine, and I know about your concerns. We want all of this to end as soon as possible.”
Both China and India had abstained when the General Assembly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in April and have been funding the war by buying Russian oil.
Putin was compelled to call for the partial mobilization of reserves because of the shortage of contract forces and weakness on the front lines. Ukraine’s counteroffensive, both in the northeast and in the south, has been effective as it has taken over large swaths of territory and is poised to make further progress.
Western weapons have indeed helped, and Russia is suffering heavy losses, perhaps tens of thousands of soldiers killed and even running short of supplies. What Putin will do as a last resort when cornered is obviously unknown, but he understands that he is not the only one with nuclear weapons; and the “mutual assured destruction” concept that kept rivals acting rationally even during the Cold War continues to have real meaning.
Prospects for mediation or negotiations are remote, although President Erdogan of Turkey, who has positioned himself as a mediator in the conflict, said in the General Assembly on Tuesday, “We need to find together a reasonable, just and viable diplomatic solution that will provide both sides the opportunity of an honorable exit.” He added: “We will continue to increase our efforts to end the war.”
No matter how long the war rages, Putin has already scaled back his prior ambitions. Will the west keep up its resolve to support Ukraine as it valiantly fights for its territorial integrity and political independence?
— Ved Nanda is a Distinguished University Professor and director of the Ved Nanda Center for International Law at the University of Denver Sturm College of Law. He welcomes comments at vnanda@law.du.edu.
