Gary Franks: Identity politics — Bad for America, but good for Democrats

With history as our guide, if the elections were held today on a scale from 1 to 100, the Democrats would already have a 9-1 lead over former President Donald Trump. In our model, 10% would represent the Black vote and 90% would be the non-Black (predominately white) vote.

This is not based on issues or records, but solely on identity politics. Can this change?

It would take a substantial white and/or Hispanic vote victory for Trump and/or a significant increase in Black support for Trump. Otherwise, we will likely have a President Kamala Harris and Vice President Tim Walz.

Democrats have used Black people and have needed Black people to win elections. Democrats have not won the white vote in presidential elections since President Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Really. It is Black people that put Democrats over the top.

Here is how: In a theoretical two-way race, it would take 50-plus percent to win. For the non-Black group, you are already down 9-1 out of 100 points. This is due to more than 90% of the Black vote going routinely to the Democrat candidate and less than 10% of the Black vote going to the Republicans. As a result, Democrats only must get another 41 points to get to 50 points . Republicans need a whopping additional 49 points to get to 50.

If the 90% non-Black (mainly white) group gives Trump even a 6-point advantage, Trump would still lose if turnout for each group is the same. So, a comfortable 48% to 42% Trump victory among non-Black folks would still result in a 51% to 49% victory for the Democrats.

Black support for a Black candidate for president or vice president can be even higher than 90% for the Democrats. Former President Barack Obama received nearly 95% of the Black vote in his 2012 election and Biden-Harris received over 95% of the Black women vote.

Harris has been handed the nomination. For president, she did not get one vote from registered voters in the Democratic Party. This would mark the second time she failed to get any votes in the Democratic primaries. The first time she leaped over others to get the vice president’s position. This time she was anointed by President Joe Biden and Democratic Party leaders and given the nomination for president in a matter of days. Everyone else who achieved the honor took months to accomplish it.

The so-called “democratic process” for nominating a presidential candidate in 2024 resembles what would happen for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin or China’s Xi Jinping than it would for any modern-day American president.

Even when the Democratic Party leaders had a vote, Harris was the only name on the ballot. I am sure the now deceased Cuban leader Fidel Castro would have related to this. And Putin and Xi Jinping would agree that “this is how it should be done,” I say facetiously.

Identity politics is not new. In Booker T. Washington’s book “Up from Slavery,” he said that he once asked former slaves how they would know for whom to vote. They said that upon learning what white people were going to do, they would do the opposite.

Identity politics paused for a couple of decades. In the 1950s former President Dwight D. Eisenhower in victory and Nixon in defeat both got a significant percent, but not the majority, of the Black vote.

The legendary civil rights leaders of the 1960s did not boast of any party affiliation and got more done for Black Americans than had ever happened previously. They helped pass laws on civil rights, voting rights, fair housing. They crushed Jim Crow segregation and racial discrimination.

Have the Democratic Party leaders done enough to deserve 90-plus percent of the Black vote? If they did the liberal media, an appendage of the Democratic Party, would have told you so.

Here is what they will not tell the Black community, however:

In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. President George H.W. Bush had Gen. Colin Powell use excessive military force to quickly remove Iraq from Kuwait. Biden-Harris used sanctions on Russia when the latter invaded Ukraine. Sanctions have failed for two years. What we have instead are lost lives and resources that could have been better used helping Americans.

Black Democratic leaders demonize their opponents and use tribalism to keep identity politics going strong. For the Black community, however, their results have been negligible.