Bangladesh's Yunus in China: Why India will be keenly watching the visit

Bangladesh’s interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, is set to embark on a visit to China on Wednesday (March 26). The four-day tour is his first high-level bilateral meeting with a foreign power since the Nobel laureate took charge in August 2024.

Yunus’ visit to China comes amid Bangladesh’s worsening ties with India. New Delhi will be closely watching his trip as it vies with Beijing for regional influence.

Let’s take a closer look.

What will Yunus do in China?

Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus will attend the opening session of the Boao Forum for Asia in China’s southern island province of Hainan on March 27.

He is likely to hold a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing the next day. Yunus will later speak at Peking University, where he will reportedly be presented with an honorary doctorate.

Significance of Yunus’ China trip

Muhammad Yunus is expected to get a red-carpet welcome in China. With the Beijing trip, he is hoping to attain recognition for his leadership and the interim government amid domestic uncertainties.

Yunus came to power as Bangladesh’s interim leader after the then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country amid widespread student protests.

Bangladesh is seeking Chinese funds amid the United States cancelling aid worth $29 billion to the South Asian country.

As per the Bangladesh daily Daily Star report, China and Bangladesh are planning to sign at least eight memoranda of understanding, including on trade, culture, upgrading Mongla Port and water management.

Located on the northern shores of the Bay of Bengal, Mongla Port is Bangladesh’s second-largest seaport.

Chinese investment is likely to be high on the agenda as Yunus visits China. Dhaka will urge Beijing to reduce the interest rate on Chinese loans from 2-3 per cent to 1 per cent and extend the loan repayment period from 20 years to 30 years.

“There could be some MoUs signed, but substantial boost in trade and investment or concessions in loans will largely depend on political stability, even though China maintains relations with any government of the time,” Imtiaz Ahmed, a former professor of Dhaka University’s international relations department, told The Daily Star.

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China is Bangladesh’s biggest trading partner with bilateral trade amounting to about $24 billion. Bangladesh’s shipments to China are valued at less than $1 billion.

Over 70 per cent of equipment and ammunition for the Bangladesh’s military comes from China, as per BBC.

Dhaka is also a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and has received heavy Chinese investment for infrastructure projects under the global connectivity programme.

Speaking to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), Lailufar Yasmin, an international relations professor at the University of Dhaka, said talks on the management of the Teesta River are expected to feature during Yunus’ visit.

India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers flowing from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal. The Ganga and the Brahmaputra (known as Jamuna in Bangladesh) are the largest rivers the two countries share. The Teesta is a tributary of the Brahmaputra, cascading from Sikkim and West Bengal before entering Bangladesh.

China has shown interest in the river and proposed to dredge and embank a portion of the Teesta River. However, Dhaka has not yet greenlit the plan.

The Rohingya crisis could also come up in discussions during Yunus’ China visit, A Bangladesh foreign ministry official told The Daily Star that Dhaka will seek Beijing’s help in addressing the issue.

Why India will be watching

India’s relationship with its ‘friend’ Bangladesh has frayed since Hasina’s ouster last August. New Delhi providing refuge to the former PM, alleged atrocities on Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, and refugee influx have deteriorated ties between the two countries.

Dhaka has requested Hasina’s extradition but Delhi has turned it down. Amid the strain in the diplomatic relationship between India and Bangladesh, China has been making overtures to Dhaka.

Beijing has made efforts to boost ties with Dhaka in trade, defence, investment, and other strategic sectors.

As India has cut back on medical visas for Bangladeshis, it has paved the way for China to fill the void. Earlier this month, a medical delegation from Bangladesh visited the Chinese city of Kunming, seeking dedicated hospitals for Bangladeshi patients there.

“When there is a vacuum, others will come and fill the space,” a Bangladesh source told Reuters. “Some people are going to Thailand and China.”

Although ties with Dhaka are currently sour, New Delhi cannot let its neighbour get cosy with Beijing.

“Bangladesh’s geostrategic location in the Indo-Pacific makes it a crucial mass in China’s military calculus to counter India and other regional powers. Control over key maritime routes and potential access to naval infrastructure could bolster Beijing’s presence in the Bay of Bengal,” Rishi Gupta, the Assistant Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, New Delhi, wrote in an opinion piece for ThePrint.

Besides boosting ties with China, Bangladesh has started mending ties with India’s another rival – Pakistan.

Speaking to Reuters, Happymon Jacob, who teaches international relations at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), said “South Asia is undergoing a major strategic shift in which China is becoming one of the biggest players.”

“With every South Asian country, the traditional primacy that India enjoyed is being questioned.”

As China tries to expand its influence in the region by wooing Bangladesh, India has adopted an approach of “strategic caution and patience”, as per an Indian Express article.

New Delhi has increased engagement with Dhaka over the past few months, including by the Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Kumar Verma calling on officials of key ministries in the Yunus government and Foreign Secretary Misri visiting Dhaka to hold Foreign Office Consultations with Bangladesh’s Foreign Secretary and meeting Yunus.

There are also speculations about a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yunus next month on the sidelines of the sixth BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand.

With inputs from agencies