RECAP: Asian stocks slid yesterday with heavy selling in South Korea and Japan, while safe-haven gold traded at a record high as the latest tariff salvo from US President Donald Trump stoked investor worries of an all-out trade war.
An earthquake that was felt across Bangkok led the Stock Exchange of Thailand to cancel all trading in the afternoon session.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,173.49 and 1,194.65 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,175.45, down 0.9% from the previous week, with light daily turnover averaging only 22.19 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 3.52 billion baht. Brokerage firms were net sellers of 48.12 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 1.84 billion and institutional investors at 1.63 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: US President Donald Trump on Thursday confirmed 25% tariffs on all imported autos will start on April 3, with 25% levies on most imported auto parts to start in May. He signalled some flexibility on other tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 2, and plans to speak with President Xi Jinping after China announced tariffs on US agricultural imports.
- Canada announced it would retaliate for the latest US tariffs on automobiles, and suggested it might team up with the EU to devise a broader strategy. Trump threatened to increase import taxes on the EU and Canada even further if they collaborate to harm the US economy.
- Thailand ranks 10th on the "Dirty 15" list of countries with high trade surpluses, making it particularly vulnerable to the reciprocal tariffs that Trump is preparing to announce next week.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) is calling for the formation of a new trade bloc to reduce the impact from the trade war, estimating that the 25% US tariffs on European imports would slice 0.3% off the euro zone economy.
- Gold soared 0.7% on Friday to an all-time high of more than $3,077 an ounce as concerns about a widening trade war remained front of mind for investors.
- The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, final figures show, driven by a 4% increase in consumer spending, the Commerce Department said.
- US consumer sentiment extended its decline in March, as the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell from 98.3 to 92.9, its weakest reading since February 2021, reflecting concerns that Trump's policies might lead to a recession.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has met with a group of global business leaders from FedEx, Standard Chartered, Sanofi, AstraZeneca and ThyssenKrupp in Beijing, in an effort to boost investor sentiment as rising tariffs fuel uncertainty for the economy.
- Oil prices are headed for a third straight weekly gain, driven by supply-side concerns after Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imports from countries purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela.
- UK inflation fell slightly to 2.8% in February. British house prices rose at their fastest pace in two years, rising 4.9% to £269,000 ($347,000) in January.
- US tariff hikes are complicating the Bank of Japan's plan to raise interest rates to address broadening price increases that have kept inflation above its 2% target for nearly three years. Headline inflation in Tokyo was 2.9% in February.
- European car sales declined the most in five months in February with new registrations falling 3.1% year-on-year to 963,540 units, an industry group said. Sales of petrol-powered vehicles fell 24% and diesel vehicles 28%.
- Revenue of the Chinese carmaker BYD reached 777 billion yuan ($107 billion) in 2024, up 29% and topping the $97.7-billion figure for rival Tesla. BYD said it aims to double its sales outside China to 800,000 cars in 2025 and will look to overcome tariffs by assembling more cars locally.
- Apple said its iPhone 16 would finally be available in Indonesia from April 11, after Jakarta lifted a ban on its sale following the company's pledge to invest $300 million.
- Hong Kong home prices declined for a third month in February to a nearly nine-year low, government figures showed, as the ailing property market struggled to find support.
- Xiaomi Corp had raised 5.5 billion in an upsized share sale, as the Chinese tech firm capitalises on a surge in its stock price to help raise funds to expand its EV business.
- The Alibaba fintech affiliate Ant Group says it is using Huawei chips for AI development, achieving cost reductions of up to 20% and claiming performance comparable to the Nvidia H800 that the US has barred from being sold in China.
- Morgan Stanley has lifted its target for the Chinese stock index for the second time this year, citing revenue growth, macroeconomic improvements and a potentially strengthening yuan. It also adjusted China's economic growth forecast to 4.5% from the previous 4%.
- Vietnam now ranks as the third-most-visited country in Southeast Asia, with 17.5 million international arrivals in 2024, edging ahead of Singapore. It follows Malaysia, which claims 25 million visitors, and Thailand, in top spot with 35 million.
- The Thai cabinet approved the draft entertainment complex bill, with casinos to be limited to 10% of the area. The draft is expected to enter the parliamentary review process by April 10.
- The cabinet approved a bill to amend the Securities and Exchange Act to expand the regulator's authority over criminal cases in the stock market, aiming to boost investor confidence in regulatory agility.
- The cabinet also approved a corporate income tax exemption for expenses incurred when investing in large commercial electric vehicles (buses and trucks) until Dec 31.
- Thailand's car exports in February fell 8.3% year-on-year due to EV market erosion and tariff concerns. Production fell 13.6%, following declines in export and domestic pickup truck sales, the Thai Automotive Industry Association said.
- Petrol and diesel prices were reduced by 1 baht a litre on Friday, as Oil Fund contributions will be reduced in two steps of 0.50 baht each, the Oil Fuel Fund Office announced.
- Thailand is seeing a surge in hotel bookings by international visitors for the Songkran holiday in April, with of Koh Samui -- the filming location of the hit series The White Lotus -- recording a 65% increase from a year ago.
- Thai online ad spending is forecast to grow 10% to 35 billion baht this year, based on a gradual rebound of the local economy and intense competition in the digital sector.
- A low-season tourism stimulus programme that would offer a subsidy of up to 3,000 baht per night for up to 1 million local travellers from May through September is expected to be approved soon.
- PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR) continues to expand in Cambodia, with a first "concept" Cafe Amazon branch recently opening in the country chosen to be its second business base.
- SET-listed Amata Corp is planning to build a new industrial estate in Laos to serve foreign investors who will relocate or expand their businesses out of China.
COMING UP: On Monday, Germany releases monthly inflation and the Reserve Bank of Australia announces an interest rate decision. Tuesday brings euro zone inflation and a US manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) update. On Thursday, the US releases initial jobless claims and services PMI. On Friday the US announces March non-farm payrolls.
- Locally, InnovestX Securities on Tuesday has a press conference on Thursday, SCB Asset Management discusses business plans and the 2025 investment outlook, and the Thai Bond Market Association discusses first-quarter market performance and outlook.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Trinity Securities believes investors will continue to move money out of growth stocks into deep value and defensive stocks. It believes that the next interest rate cut in the middle of the current cycle will not benefit growth stocks as much as in the early and final stages of the cycle, which often leads to balance sheet expansion. Sectors that tend to outperform the market in the second quarter of each year include energy, food and medical. Top picks for the quarter include BCP, TOP, PTTGC, GPSC, CPF, BDMS, BH, TCAP, 3BBIF and LHHOTEL.
- InnovestX Securities expects the government to announce more stimulus programmes for the low tourism season. Many companies are announcing share buybacks, indicating that liquidity is still strong and should help support the Thai stock market somewhat. The main investment risk is that Thailand is one of the 15 countries seen as most vulnerable to US reciprocal tariffs. Recommended stocks are ERW with a fundamental target price of 4.80 baht, BBL at 180 baht and CPF at 30 baht.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,160 points and resistance at 1,205. Asia Plus Securities sees support at 1,140 and resistance at 1,200.
