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Han faces herculean challenges of tariffs, Trump and the North in runup to election

Published: 06 Apr. 2025, 17:38 Updated: 06 Apr. 2025, 17:47

Acting President Han Duck-soo on April 4 at the Government Complex in central Seoul [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

It's "Diplomacy Mission Impossible" for acting President Han Duck-soo, tasked with minimizing the burden for the incoming administration while fending off risks during his term that may last up to 60 days until the next presidential election.

With the dismissal of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, the domestic political uncertainty that had loomed over Korea’s diplomacy has been partially resolved. However, with the new administration set to take office in less than two months, Han and the government find themselves amid global turmoil shaking the international economic order.

The ticking 'tariff' bomb

The top priority is the tariff bomb dropped by U.S. President Donald Trump.

On Wednesday, Trump designated Korea and 66 other countries as “worst offenders” and announced reciprocal tariffs of 25 percent on Korean products. This rate is higher than those imposed on the EU (20 percent) and Japan (24 percent), raising concerns that Korean exports may lose price competitiveness.

As Trump’s “universal tariffs” affect nearly every country except Canada and Mexico, competing nations have scrambled to appease Trump. Vietnam, hit with a 46-percent tariff, pledged to lower its U.S. tariff rate to zero in response to Trump’s criticism that its rate was as high as 90 percent.

In contrast, Korea’s current administration lacks the authority to make bold decisions like these, due to its limited capacity for policy continuity.

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington on April 2 [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Defense is the best defense

With rival nations actively negotiating with Trump, concerns are growing that Korea — tied up for two months — may run out of viable negotiation cards.

There's a particular concern that Trump could weaponize tariffs to gain leverage in diplomatic or security issues. Therefore, it’s crucial that the interim government focuses on preparing a variety of scenarios and alternatives for the incoming administration to reference.

“Under an acting president, it will be difficult to negotiate new agreements strong enough to reverse the tariff measures announced by Trump," Shin Beom-chul, former vice minister of defense and current senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said.

“Trump could also suddenly demand an increase in Korea’s defense cost-sharing, raise issues related to the strategic flexibility of U.S. Forces Korea, or even take actual steps toward engaging North Korea — beyond mere rhetoric. Managing these uncertainties and preventing new issues from emerging is the key task.”

Cars waiting to be exported at parked at a port in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on April 6. [NEWS1]

It's Han against the world

Trump’s desire to achieve early diplomatic successes, such as ending the war in Ukraine or stabilizing the Middle East, is expected to be another challenge for Korea’s acting administration.

The U.S. Department of Defense has made clear that while it focuses on deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and defending the U.S. mainland, it will rely on allies — including Korea — to handle threats like North Korea. This could lead to changes in the role of U.S. Forces Korea.

Concerns have arisen over a recent decision to temporarily redeploy part of the Patriot missile defense system from Korea to the Middle East, with some interpreting it as a sign of broader military repositioning.

“Under the mosaic warfare concept, which likens the alliance to a finely tuned puzzle, the U.S. may push for more interoperable roles from Korea," said Jung Dae-jin, a professor at Halla University in Wonju. "Korea should be prepared to engage in reciprocal negotiations with the Trump administration on the strategic flexibility of U.S. Forces Korea — and use this as an opportunity to strengthen its own defense capabilities.”

Given that this is a sensitive time during which the U.S. may redefine Korea’s strategic role in the Indo-Pacific, experts are warning against rash political statements on diplomatic and security issues during the presidential campaign period, especially since major powers are closely monitoring each candidate’s words.

There is a precedent. When former President Moon Jae-in, during his 2017 campaign, said the deployment of the U.S.-led Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile system should be reviewed by the National Assembly, Trump reportedly became furious and interpreted the comment as a potential reversal of deployment — as revealed in the memoir of former U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, published last August.

North Korean leader Kim Jung-un on April 4 [RODONG SINMUN]

Don't forget Kim Jong-un

The North Korean variable also remains unpredictable.

North Korea reacted relatively quietly to Yoon’s dismissal, reporting the news a day later on Saturday without further comment. However, a sudden provocation to test Korea’s leadership vacuum remains possible.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could potentially attend Russia’s Victory Day ceremony on May 9, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Standing alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping for the first time would visually emphasize a North Korea-China-Russia alignment and position Kim to pursue future negotiations with Trump.

There is also the possibility that Trump, who has repeatedly hinted that he is in communication with Kim and may take some action at some point, could suddenly engage in substantive steps toward U.S.-North Korea dialogue. This underscores the need for Korea to maintain smooth strategic communication with the United States, even during the interim administration.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.

BY PARK HYUN-JU [[email protected]]