2025 Kentucky Derby horses, odds, futures, date, preview: Expert who hit 11 Derby-Oaks Doubles gives picks

The Florida Derby has been one of the best Kentucky Derby prep races to predict the winner of the Run for the Roses. In fact, 15 horses have parlayed a Florida Derby victory into a Kentucky Derby garland, including six since 2000. In 2023, Florida Derby runner-up Mage went on to win the Kentucky Derby, and this year's Florida Derby runner-up, Sovereignty, is one of the favorites at 5-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds ahead of Saturday's race at Churchill Downs. The only horse with shorter odds than Sovereignty is Journalism, the 3-1 favorite among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses.

Sandman, the Arkansas Derby winner, is going off at 6-1. Should your 2025 Kentucky Derby picks include backing one of the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites, or should you target one of the potential 2025 Kentucky Derby longshot picks like Grande (20-1) or Flying Mohawk (30-1)? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling. 

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling's surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who barely hits the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez will make his Churchill Downs debut after none of his previous five races came at the legendary Kentucky track. In addition, the Kentucky Derby 2025 will be just his second race outside the state of California. Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert, hasn't been challenged in a Grade 1 stakes race either.

Although Baffert is tied for the most Kentucky Derby victories (six), only one of those horses never ran in a Grade 1 race prior to the Run for the Roses. Even Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first at the 2021 Kentucky Derby before being disqualified for a failed drug test, had previous Grade 1 stakes experience, which could indicate Baffert doesn't have as much confidence in Rodriguez as his previous Kentucky Derby victors. At 12-1 odds, Demling suggests staying away from Rodriguez in 2025 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Although Rodriguez has a strong pedigree as the son of a fast Kentucky Derby winner in Authentic, Luxor Cafe can one-up that as the son of American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner. American Pharoah won nine of his final 10 races, finishing second in the Travers Stakes in his only non-victory over that span, as one of the most dominant horses in history.

Luxor Cafe has his own results to justify his skillset outside of just a strong pedigree. The Japanese horse has won four of six career starts and is 4-for-4 in victories over his last four runs. He won three stakes during that span to secure his spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. No Japanese horse has won a Kentucky Derby, but Forever Young finished third last year, and Demling believes Luxor Cafe can reach a higher level of greatness for Japanese horses at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who is coming off an "impressive" and unexpected showing in his last race. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions